Was it a good or bad election for the nation's million or so gays and lesbians?

The start could hardly have been worse. Tony Abbott felt threatened by us, a Family First candidate linked gay marriage to child abuse, and gay minister Penny Wong sounded weak in defending Labor's policy against marriage equality. Things started to look up when Greens' vocal ''equal love'' campaign was rewarded with a record vote. When Andrew Wilkie tabled a conscience vote on marriage as a priority the picture looked even better.

The Labor-Greens agreement now leaves gays waiting hopefully at the altar. Gay marriage may be close to the heart of Adam Bandt – who has promised to introduce a private members' bill on the matter – as it is to Bob Brown and several Labor MPs. But Wong was called a "traitor" for simply stating her party's existing policy during the campaign, so the Greens would be naive to expect less than a blowtorch from the pink press for letting marriage fall from the negotiating table. Is that fair? Probably not. The potential of achieving marriage equality under an Abbott government is close to zero.

The Labor-Green agreement also focuses on improved parliamentary processes, such as at least two-and-a-half hours in a sitting week dedicated to debating private members' bills. This will also be an outcome of any deal struck by the major parties with the independents. With Wilkie's support Julia Gillard is increasingly likely to stay as Prime Minister, meaning a private members' bill on gay marriage can be reasonably expected within a year.

Such a vote will happen against the backdrop of two separate political forces – on whom Gillard depends – pushing for equality. This in turn will make it hard for Labor not to offer a conscience vote on the issue. Given the freedom to do so, a majority of Labor MPs, including up to 14 likely cabinet members would back equality.

Attention will now focus on the race to propose a gay marriage bill – will it be Wilkie, Bandt, or a Labor MP such as Anthony Albanese or Tanya Plibersek? It would be especially poignant if Wilkie proposed the equality bill – taking Tasmania in just 15 years from a place where sodomy was illegal to a place where love is equal.

Full Story at source : http://www.smh.com.au/opinion