It keeps getting harder for Julia Gillard to hold the line on gay marriage.

Today's poll shows that not only do most Australians support the legal recognition of gay marriage by 57 per cent to 37 against. It also reveals that there could be political advantage for Labor to pursue this idea.

Why? Because of the way that opinion is distributed among the supporters of the three political parties.

The Herald/Nielsen poll shows that gay marriage is accepted by almost 90 per cent of Greens voters, two-thirds of Labor voters and 51 per cent of Coalition voters. So by supporting such a policy Gillard would not only be moving to put Labor into the new community mainstream. She would also be representing the great bulk of Labor voters, while making Labor more appealing to almost all Greens voters.

The Greens have proved to be the great electoral threat to Labor. For every vote Labor lost to the Coalition at the election, it lost 2⅔ votes to the Greens. If Labor had not lost so many supporters to the Greens, it would very likely be in power today in its own right.

By recognising same-sex marriages, Gillard would rob the Greens of a powerfully emotive point of differentiation.

And today's poll shows that by running with gay marriage, Labor could stymie - the preferred word among political operatives is "wedge" - Tony Abbott's Coalition.

Because Coalition voters are divided right down the middle on this, Abbott would be reluctant to take a position that risks offending either side of the argument.

He would be politically immobilised on the issue if Labor took it up, probably retreating to the position of allowing his MPs a conscience vote.

By hewing to her position, Gillard is instead defending a view at odds with the mainstream and two-thirds of her own party's voters.

But Gillard will not budge. Why not? First, because she would prefer to remain consistent with the policy she took to the election. Second, because her union and parliamentary support base is deeply divided on this matter and she would rather avoid alienating the Right - where gay marriage has its most avid opponents.

Third, because she has a list of big reforms to work on and doesn't want to distract from a carbon price, national broadband and health reform.

And she has a handy out - Labor's national conference will debate the policy in December next year.

Full Story at source:http://www.smh.com.au/opinion